LeadershipStrategic Resilience in a BANI World: From Recovery to Foresight

The world doesn’t operate in neat, linear timelines and neither should resilience.

As leaders grapple with economic shocks, geopolitical instability, and emerging technologies like AI, the challenge is learning to think differently in the face of it.

Strategic resilience in a BANI world is quickly replacing traditional approaches rooted in static plans and backward-looking assumptions.

In a recent discussion with Colm Gayton, Operational Resilience Manager at AXA, we explored how organizations are being called to evolve beyond traditional crisis planning into something more enduring: a model of strategic sustainability.

 

Resilience vs. Sustainability: What’s the Difference?

Resilience is often about recovery: the ability to absorb disruption and bounce back. But as Colm noted, the organizations that thrive in today’s environment do more than recover – they adapt in advance.

“Resilience is being able to get through things. Sustainability is forward-looking. It’s about spotting challenges before they arrive, and knowing how to roll with them.”

This shift – from reactive planning to anticipatory sensemaking – demands a new way of engaging with uncertainty. One that’s not rooted in static registers or historical patterns, but in a dynamic understanding of what’s unfolding now, and what might come next.

A New Language for a New Era: Welcome to the BANI World

The long-favoured VUCA model (Volatile, Uncertain, Complex, Ambiguous) no longer captures the scale or shape of today’s risks. Colm shared a newer framing: BANIBrittle, Anxious, Nonlinear, and Incomprehensible.

Each component challenges traditional approaches to resilience:

  • Brittle systems crack under stress despite appearing strong

  • Anxious decision-making stems from overwhelming complexity

  • Nonlinear events cascade in unpredictable ways

  • Incomprehensible change outpaces our ability to explain or model it

To succeed in this context, teams need to unlearn the mental models built for a different world – and rehearse the ones that can thrive in this one.

Why Unlearning Might Be Your Most Valuable Capability

Many executive teams still operate with inherited assumptions about risk: that it can be neatly categorised, that it progresses in stages, that it can be solved with a plan. But as Colm put it:

“You probably weren’t taught any of this in your MBA…

Your mental model of success might no longer serve you.”

Rehearsal becomes essential for thinking itself.

This is where immersive simulation can change the game. By introducing tension, uncertainty, and adversarial forces, organizations can challenge their assumptions in a low-risk environment before a real-world shock does it for them.

Scenario Play as Strategy

Colm’s vision for the future of resilience platforms is clear: they are thinking tools, not documentation systems.

“Imagine playing through a decision, and having AI act as the opposing force – adjusting, escalating, creating consequences. You’d learn not just what to do, but how to think better.”

This chess-like tension pushes teams to understand the first-order effect of a decision…and the second and third. It helps leaders build the adaptive capacity to change their structures, culture, and processes when the next unpredictable shift arrives.

And it creates space for foresight, not hindsight.

How iluminr Supports This Evolution

At iluminr, we believe platforms should do more than manage documents or check compliance boxes. They should help people think across the organization, at every level.

With capabilities like Microsimulations, crisis event rooms, and dynamic playbooks, iluminr enables:

  • Ongoing unlearning and habit-building through rapid, repeatable exercises

  • Strategic scenario play for boards and executive teams

  • Live decision journaling and event capture for continuous learning

  • Visualisation of cascading impacts across the business and supply chain through lived simulation

Whether used for regulatory preparation (like DORA) or to explore macroeconomic “what ifs,” iluminr transforms resilience from a reactive function into a strategic asset.

The Future of Strategic Sustainability

To lead in a BANI world, organizations must stop planning for the last crisis and start rehearsing for the next one.

That means building environments where it’s safe to experiment with decisions. Where failure is a teacher. Where thinking gets sharper with practice. And where readiness is never static.

“You need to come out of a scenario sweating,” Colm said. “Because if you haven’t been through the wringer in rehearsal, you won’t know how to respond when it’s real.”

The future of resilience means bouncing forward – faster, stronger, and more aware.

Ready to make the shift from resilience to sustainability?
Discover how iluminr is helping organizations unlearn, adapt, and lead through uncertainty.

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